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What's the right time to sell stocks?
Ever thought when was the last time when you sold a stock at the
right time?
We are talking about selling stocks now not because the stock
markets have fallen sharply in the last week, but because good
investment decisions involve not only buying at the right price,
but also selling at a 'right price'.
There are many tricky issues here, which we would place before
investors.
Every stock is a sell at a 'price': It is pertinent to note that
irrespective of how good the prospects of a sector or a company
may be, the fact is that every stock has a buy price and a sell
price.
How to decide what is the right price of the stock is a tricky
issue because it is a factor of 'expectations'. Here, expectations
can be a combination of both how well the company is likely to
perform in the future and the general market sentiment.
As we have mentioned before, growth rates is broadly governed by
how well the economy is likely to perform and, over the long-term,
the growth rate of most sectors is likely to trace the GDP growth.
Say,
India's economy is likely to grow at 7% per annum. This can be the
very basic benchmark when it comes to determining the growth and
valuing the stock. If a sector is likely to grow above/below GDP,
then it warrants a premium/discount.
A bull market or a bear market does not change the fundamentals of
the sector or a stock.
Take the example of Maruti in the last one and half years. It is
almost at the same price as it was at the beginning of this
period, even as car demand has been robust.
Sell when it is 'done': There have been times when despite good
performance by a company, the stock price has not risen (like 2001
to 2003) because of lack of investor confidence.
On the contrary, investors tend to 'wait' that extra-longer to
sell because the markets are rising up everyday. So, if the price
target is achieved and if one believes that based on the
assumptions, the upside is limited, it is better to sell the
stock. If it was the case, DSQ Software and Pentamedia may have
never reached the price they did in 2000.
Own research is important: In bullish times, every stock market
participant has a view on a stock or an event.
Ultimately, some set of the investing populace is proved right and
some lose money. This is what leads to efficient price discovery
of a stock. There are pink newspapers, business channels, brokers,
financial websites and magazines and many more who recommend
stocks.
While we are not attempting to comment on the reliability of any
of these sources of stock recommendations, based on the available
information, it is important to exercise one's own judgment before
buying or selling stocks. It is not prudent to blame the stock
markets for one's losses.
More importantly, the selling strategy also depends on what
approach an investor follows.
If you are a 'buy and hold for the long-term' investor (say,
number of telephone connections in the country is low and
therefore, would buy into a telecom stock from a ten year
perspective), one-year market movement may not bother you at all.
But 'buy and hold' may not yield desired results if proper
monitoring of the investment
is not done. Initial investment assumptions will change as economy
goes through cycles of recovery and slowdown.
Talking of cycles, cyclical stocks may not reward adequately based
on the 'buy and hold' strategy. Here, timing the cycle is
important. If an investor bought Tata Motors in March 1995 and
held on to the stock till now, the CAGR returns is just 5% per
annum over the last ten years!
While these aspects may not be the all and end of it, the intent
is to highlight issues that an investor has to bear in mind to
reduce the risk of losing money.
Happy realisation! |
